Wärtsilä report shows an area the size of Europe will need to be covered with renewable power to reach a clean energy future, without the integration of balancing power technologies.
Wärtsilä’s global power system modelling, published in the Crossroads to net zero report, compares two pathways from the year 2025 to 2050 with the aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, as per the Paris Agreement targets. In the first pathway, only renewables, such as wind and solar power, and energy storage are added to the power mix. In the second pathway, balancing power generation technologies, that can be ramped up quickly when needed to support intermittent renewables, are also added to the system.
The modelling shows that a power system including balancing power has significant advantages when it comes to both cost and CO₂ reductions. The model reveals that this pathway would generate cumulative savings of EUR 65 trillion by 2050 compared to a renewables-only pathway, due to less renewable capacity needed. This would average EUR 2,5 trillion per year – an equivalent to over 2% of 2024’s global GDP.
The report outlines that the effectiveness of renewables can be maximised if supported by balancing power plants, which are key in scaling up renewable energy.
In Africa, Morocco is a case in point: “Morocco has the ambition of achieving 52% renewable electricity by 2030, however integrating renewables at this scale poses challenges. Our modelling in Morocco recommends a balanced system with renewables, battery energy storage, and flexible power plants, including 60% of grid-balancing engines. This combination can optimise renewable integration, reduce fuel costs, and ensure reliability to achieve that ambition via a cost-effective, low emission pathway. South Africa has come to the same conclusion: Eskom’s recent 3 GW GASIPPPP tender for ultra-flexible gas validates the need for this flexible generation identified in our modelling. plans to grow renewable capacity to 17.7 GW by 2030.”, explains Kenneth Engblom Vice President, Africa and Europe.
Key findings
1. Reduced costs: The study shows that compared to a renewables and energy storage-only pathway, the deployment of balancing power plants will reduce the cost of future power systems by as much as 42%, equalling EUR 65 trillion
2. Reduced emissions: Adding balancing power can reduce the total cumulative power sector CO₂ emissions between now and 2050 by 21% (19 Gt), compared to the renewables and storage-only path
3. Less wasted energy: The modelling shows that the use of balancing power allows for enhanced power system optimisation, resulting in 88% less wasted energy due to renewable curtailment by 2050, compared with a renewable and energy storage-only pathway. In total, 458 000 TWh of curtailments would be avoided, enough to power the whole world with the current electricity consumption for more than 15 years
4. Less renewable capacity and land needed: By adding balancing power plants, we can halve renewable capacity and land needed to meet our decarbonisation targets.
Anders Lindberg, President Wärtsilä Energy & Executive Vice President, says:
“While we have more renewable energy on our grids than ever before, it is not enough on its own. To achieve a clean energy future, our modelling shows that flexibility is essential.
“We need to act now to integrate the right levels and types of balancing technologies into our power systems. This means rapidly phasing out inflexible assets and transitioning to sustainable fuels. Balancing power plants are not merely important; they are critical in supporting higher levels of renewable energy.”
Calls to action for the power sector
Decisive actions from the entire power sector are crucial to achieve a low-cost and low-emission energy transition in line with the 2050 Paris Agreement. Instead of only focusing on the acceleration of renewable build up, a holistic system level thinking must be in place when investing in and planning power systems.
1. Enable accelerated expansion of renewables and balancing technologies to ensure affordable electricity
2. Redesign electricity markets to incentivise flexibility
3. Choose the right future proof technologies and prepare for sustainable fuels
The full report can be found here.
