The Springboks face New Zealand at Cape Town Stadium on Saturday knowing a second defeat would leave their series hopes in tatters. A win, though, would level the series and hand the Springboks momentum heading into the final two Tests.
Rassie Erasmus men dominated large stretches of last weekend’s series opener without turning that pressure into points. They won the scrum battle, the contact area and the aerial exchanges for long periods. Yet they scored only one try compared to the All Blacks’ five, undone by handling mistakes and poor decisions. A fourth successive 5m scrum in the second half ended in a penalty for wheeling, not a try and it changed everything.
That moment proved costly, sparking a disastrous final quarter in which the Springboks conceded 21 unanswered points. Coach Rassie Erasmus has taken responsibility for those errors and pointed to mistakes made in his own planning and match strategy and he has now called for smarter decision-making and more variation in the kicking game this weekend.
RENNIE AND CO KNOW A ‘BOKLASH’ IS COMING
Expect the Springboks to lean on their forward pack again led by Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit.
Handre Pollard’s return at flyhalf, at the expense of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, looked set to settle South Africa’s attacking shape and erratic backline movement this week. However, reports suggest a calf injury could rule him out of Saturday’s Test. Pollard had only recently returned to action, in the win over Argentina, after he missed the Test against the Wales with a hamstring strain.
What the Boks need most in the Mother City this weekend, is sharper game-management than it showed in the series opener and losing the experience and calm head of Pollard so close to kick-off would be significant blow in that regard as it would most likely open the door for Feinberg-Mngomezulu, with Manie Libbok likely deputise again.
By contrast, the Kiwis showed they can match that physicality while still playing with width and pace and execute perfectly under pressure. Will Jordan, the All Blacks’ now all-time leading try-scorer, was a thorn in the hosts’ flesh at Ellis Park, shredding through the heart of the Bok defence to score twice.
ALL BLACKS NOT RESTING ON THEIR LAURELS
However, Dave Rennie has since admitted his side struggled to at times to match South Africa physically in the contact area and commanded his forwards to carry harder and win the physical exchanges more consistently at DHL Stadium. The 62-year-old also flagged discipline as an area for improvement, pointing to soft penalties conceded early in the first Test.
One big area of concern is that the All Blacks have a history of inconsistency after big wins, having lost heavily in Wellington last year following a strong result in Auckland. It’s a pattern the host nation will look to exploit on Saturday.
Rain is forecast for Cape Town, which should make handling and ball retention even more important. The Boks need to be more disciplined at the breakdown in particular and also in the final quarter in general play. Over and above all, they have to show greater composure and precision to match their power game, especially close to the try line.
The All Blacks will be gunning for a repeat of their accurate, opportunistic attacking plays that not only punished, but also exposed the Springboks so severely at Ellis Park. With both coaches speaking openly about needing to fix specific errors from the first Test, Rennie has gone a step further and warned his players to expect a ‘Boklash’ of the highest sort this weekend.
WORLD RUGBY TEST RANKING PERMUTATIONS
South Africa surrendered top spot after last weekend’s 33-16 defeat at Ellis Park. A win by up to 15 points would lift the Springboks to 93.39 ranking points, overtaking New Zealand. A margin of 16 points or more would push that to 94.16.
New Zealand can also strengthen their own position with victory in the Cape. A win by up to 15 points would take the All Blacks to 94.85 rating points in the rankings. But Rennie swatted away any talk of Test rankings and the value it holds.
“I am not remotely interested in the world rankings,” he said on Thursday. “I don’t understand them, they seem to change on a whim.”
All things considered, expect another bruising, but low-scoring contest between these world rugby heavyweights.
